Physical AI — the category of companies building robots capable of performing real-world tasks guided by large language models — has attracted significant capital in 2025 and into 2026. In a private market marketplace, Figure AI is one of the most closely watched names in that category. If you're still building foundational context on how pre-IPO investing and secondary AI markets function before evaluating robotics companies, review the complete guide to pre-IPO investing. Its humanoid robot program, commercial agreements with major manufacturing and logistics partners, and its ties to the broader AI infrastructure buildout have kept it in the conversation for accredited investors looking for secondary exposure to the space.
Secondary demand for Figure AI has been real and growing. But the company's business model introduces a set of risks that differ meaningfully from pure software AI plays. This article is not a recommendation to buy or avoid — it is a framework for asking the right questions before you submit an indication.
The business model and why it changes the risk profile
Unlike a software-based AI company, Figure AI has to manufacture physical hardware, manage supply chains, and deploy robots into industrial environments where uptime and reliability are critical. The unit economics of a physical AI company — how much it costs to build, ship, and service each robot — are less forgiving than SaaS metrics. Gross margins on hardware are structurally lower than on software, and capital intensity is higher: the company needs to spend on tooling, manufacturing, and field service as it scales.
This matters for secondary buyers because the path from current valuation to a liquidity event depends not just on AI model performance but on manufacturing execution, enterprise sales cycles, and the ability to raise additional primary capital in between. Each of those adds a variable that a software-only company does not face.
Partner concentration: a question worth asking
Commercial-stage robotics companies typically begin with a small number of anchor customers or partners, often in industries with well-defined repetitive tasks: automotive assembly, logistics warehousing, or similar environments. When a company's near-term revenue and deployment velocity are tied to one or two major agreements, the secondary investor bears partner concentration risk — the possibility that a contract renegotiation, a technical setback in deployment, or a change in the partner's own capital priorities could materially affect the company's near-term trajectory.
Before placing an indication on any physical AI secondary, ask what information the marketplace or seller can provide about commercial deployment status. You will not receive non-public material information through a compliant platform, but you should be clear on what is publicly known versus what you are extrapolating.
Structure: direct, SPV, or forward — which applies here?
Figure AI supply on secondary platforms will typically arrive as an SPV interest or a forward contract rather than a direct share transfer, particularly for smaller transaction sizes. Here is why: direct transfers require the company's active cooperation (consent, ROFR waiver, cap table update), and for a company focused on execution-intensive hardware programs, administrative bandwidth for small secondary transfers may be limited. SPVs allow a manager to aggregate multiple buyers into a single transfer event, reducing the administrative burden on the issuer.
If you are being offered an SPV interest in Figure AI supply, ask specifically about the fee structure: the annual management fee (if any), the carried interest percentage, and whether the carry has a preferred return or hurdle rate. A 20% carry on a 3x return is a very different economic outcome than a 20% carry with a 1x preferred return. Our separate guide on SPV fees and carry explains these mechanics in detail.
ROFR and the Figure AI cap table
As with virtually all well-funded private companies, Figure AI's equity documents almost certainly contain a right of first refusal. In practice, for a company at Figure AI's stage, ROFR is typically held by the company itself and by lead investors, and it runs for 30 to 45 days after notice is delivered. Fall-through risk — where a preferred investor exercises ROFR and you receive your capital back without the position — is a real possibility. Ask your platform whether ROFR clearance has been obtained or is being processed in parallel.
Sizing and portfolio context
A secondary position in Figure AI is a bet on a specific and concentrated outcome: successful commercialization of humanoid robotics at scale, within a timeframe that allows a liquidity event before you need capital elsewhere. That is a longer and less certain path than, say, a secondary position in a late-stage SaaS company with predictable recurring revenue. Position size should reflect that uncertainty.
- Confirm the share class and whether you are buying common or preferred, and understand the liquidation preference stack.
- If buying via SPV, obtain the SPV's operating agreement and confirm the fee and carry structure before funding.
- Ask whether ROFR clearance is complete or in process, and get a written confirmation of the expected settlement timeline.
- Consider your existing exposure to hardware-intensive or manufacturing-dependent companies when sizing the position.
- Review what is publicly available on commercial deployment milestones before relying on any secondary valuation as a reference price.
Where to look next
Browse current Figure AI pre-IPO shares on the Limen Markets marketplace. Listings show confirmed seller-side supply at the moment of your indication, with 1–5 day settlement targets and ROFR clearance run in parallel with execution. If you want to compare how SPV and direct structures play out under a ROFR constraint before submitting an indication, the guide linked below walks through both scenarios with concrete examples.