Humanoid robotics is one of the most polarizing corners of the private market in 2026. Figure AI sits near the top of that debate — well-funded, partnered with large industrial customers, and operating in a category where the distance between prototype and commercial scale still spans several years and several hundred million dollars. That tension shows up directly in secondary pricing.

Buyers arrive at Figure AI through different doors. Some come from the AI side, treating it as a physical-world extension of the large-language-model wave. Others come from the robotics or defense-adjacent supply-chain angle, where automation demand is structural and largely independent of the AI hype cycle. The thesis you hold shapes which risks feel acceptable and which feel fatal. Getting clear on that before you place an indication is not optional.

The primary-round mark and what it does to secondary pricing

Figure AI's most recent disclosed primary round set a valuation mark that secondary sellers have used as a pricing anchor ever since. That is normal. What buyers sometimes miss is how aggressively secondary prices can front-run the next primary — especially when commercial milestones (a new deployment announcement, a production ramp figure, a named enterprise customer expansion) drop between rounds.

The practical consequence: the secondary price you see today may already price in a future round that has not closed. If that round comes in at or above the implied mark, holders are fine. If it comes in below — a down round — secondary buyers who paid a premium absorb that correction immediately through the revised 409A and any future secondary bids that follow the new primary.

Secondary prices in deep-tech hardware companies often anticipate the next primary round. Buyers who do not stress-test a flat or down-round scenario before committing should consider that a gap in their diligence.

The stress test is straightforward. Take the implied valuation you are paying, then ask: what does my cost basis look like if the next primary closes at 20% below this figure? At 40% below? At what point does the long-term thesis still hold even though the entry price does not?

Common versus preferred: the question that changes the math

Most secondary supply in companies like Figure AI comes from employees and early contractors who hold common stock or vested options — not from early institutional investors who hold preferred. That distinction matters enormously in a liquidation scenario.

Preferred stockholders typically receive their invested capital back first, before common stockholders see any proceeds. In a participating preferred structure, preferred holders may also share in the upside above their liquidation preference alongside common. In a non-participating preferred structure, preferred holders choose between taking their preference or converting to common — whichever is larger. Common holders, and SPV buyers whose economics are tied to common, sit behind all of that.

Liquidation preference
The amount preferred investors receive before common holders get anything in a sale, merger, or wind-down.
Participating preferred
Preferred holders take their preference first, then also share in remaining proceeds as if they had converted to common.
Non-participating preferred
Preferred holders choose the better of their preference or full conversion to common — they do not get both.
1x preference
Preferred investors recover exactly their invested capital before common participates. Most recent venture deals use 1x non-participating.
Multiple preference
Preferred investors recover 2x or more their invested capital before common participates. Rare in late-stage primary rounds but worth verifying in older tranches.

Before buying secondary exposure tied to Figure AI common, ask the seller or the marketplace to confirm which preferred series sit above you in the waterfall, their aggregate liquidation preference, and whether any are participating. In a company with multiple venture rounds, the stack can be several hundred million dollars deep before common equity is in the money.

SPV versus direct transfer: which vehicle fits this name

Figure AI, like most late-stage private companies, exercises active control over who appears on its cap table. Direct transfers — where the buyer takes a named position on the company's books — require company consent and in many cases trigger a right of first refusal, or ROFR. The company or existing investors may elect to step in and purchase the shares at the agreed price rather than allow the transfer to the intended buyer.

SPVs sidestep the cap table crowding issue because the SPV itself (typically a single LLC) holds the interest, and the buyer holds a membership interest in the SPV. The buyer never appears on the company's cap table. The trade-off is that SPV buyers inherit the SPV's economic terms — carried interest, management fees, preferred return structures, and the SPV manager's decisions around exit — in addition to the company's underlying economics.

At Limen Markets, ROFR waiver and company consent processes run in parallel with execution rather than sequentially, which compresses the time between signing and settlement. For a deep-tech issuer like Figure AI where transfer approval timelines can stretch, that parallel process matters.

The milestone calendar: what to watch before and after you buy

Secondary prices for hardware-and-AI companies respond sharply to operational announcements. For Figure AI, the milestones buyers typically track fall into a few categories.

  • Production unit deployment figures: the number of robots shipped to commercial customers is a real signal of whether the manufacturing ramp is tracking the roadmap.
  • Enterprise contract expansions or new named customers: large industrial and logistics customers moving from pilot to full deployment change the revenue trajectory meaningfully.
  • Fundraising activity: a new primary round at a higher valuation is a positive secondary signal; a round that takes longer than expected to close, or closes quietly at a flat mark, often signals that price discovery is ongoing.
  • Competitive announcements: other humanoid robotics companies announcing production milestones or customer wins can compress the premium the market assigns to any single name, including Figure AI.
  • Regulatory or safety events: robotics operating in physical industrial environments carries product liability and regulatory exposure that pure-software companies do not.

Buyers who have not mapped out when they expect clarity on at least two or three of these milestones before placing an indication are effectively buying a binary outcome — either the company executes on all fronts simultaneously, or they wait indefinitely for a liquidity event.

Lock-up and liquidity timeline: setting realistic expectations

Secondary buyers in pre-IPO companies often think about two exit paths: an IPO or a direct acquisition. For Figure AI, neither path has a disclosed timeline. Buyers should assume a holding period of at least two to four years from today and test whether that horizon fits their portfolio.

Even after an IPO, secondary investors who entered through an SPV may face lock-up periods imposed by the IPO underwriters on the SPV's position, which can extend six months or more beyond the IPO date. Buyers should confirm in the SPV operating agreement whether the manager has discretion to distribute shares in-kind after the lock-up expires or is required to sell and distribute cash — those two paths have meaningfully different tax consequences.

A two-to-four-year hold with an SPV lock-up tail after IPO is not unusual for deep-tech names. Buyers who model their exit as 'IPO plus thirty days' are almost certainly underestimating the actual liquidity timeline.

The diligence questions to ask before your indication

Collecting information in the private market is harder than in public equities, but the following questions are fair game to ask through any reputable marketplace before you commit.

  1. What share class is being sold, and what preferred series sit above it in the waterfall?
  2. Is the seller transferring shares directly or through an SPV interest, and what are the SPV's economic terms (carry, fees, preferred return)?
  3. Has the company's ROFR been waived for this transaction, or is the waiver process still pending?
  4. What was the last 409A valuation, and how does the secondary ask price compare to it?
  5. Does the company's transfer policy require board approval in addition to ROFR waiver, and what is the typical approval timeline?
  6. What lock-up provisions apply at IPO to the specific security or vehicle being purchased?

If the marketplace cannot answer these questions or requires you to commit capital before they are answered, treat that as a signal about the quality of their pre-trade supply verification.

Next step

If Figure AI fits your thesis and hold horizon, current indications — including confirmed seller-side supply — are available on the marketplace. Review active listings, compare the ask against your waterfall stress test, and confirm the vehicle type before submitting an indication.