Anthropic's secondary market has tightened sharply over the last two months. The pattern is familiar to anyone who has watched late-stage AI names trade through a private market marketplace — a major primary round at a step-up valuation, followed by a sharp drop in secondary supply as existing holders mark up their own positions and sit on them. Investors trying to understand how liquidity cycles impact pricing and access should start with the complete guide to pre-IPO investing before evaluating tightening supply conditions in AI secondaries.
What changed
The Series G primary closed at a step-up that materially repriced the entire cap table. Holders who were previously indicating offers at 0.7–0.8x of the prior secondary mark suddenly needed to either re-indicate at the new mark or pull their offers entirely. Most pulled. The bid book stayed thick — there are no shortage of buyers — but the ask side dried up almost overnight.
Why this happens at AI names specifically
Two reasons. First, AI valuations have been re-rating roughly every six months on revenue acceleration; sellers who lock in a price today routinely watch the same shares trade 30–50% higher at the next round. The asymmetry punishes early sellers, and they know it. Second, employee shareholders at frontier AI labs are unusually wealthy already from the equity itself; the marginal cash from a partial sale isn't life-changing, so the threshold for 'a price worth selling at' is high.
How long it lasts
In our experience, post-primary supply squeezes ease within 60–90 days as the new mark stabilizes and a fresh wave of sellers emerges from employee tender windows or estate-planning rebalances. Watch the spread between bid and ask — it widens during the squeeze, then compresses as sellers re-engage.
What to do
For buyers: don't chase. The squeeze price is rarely the right entry. Wait for the bid-ask to compress and execute against confirmed asks rather than indicative ones. For sellers: this is your window. Squeeze conditions are when motivated buyers pay premiums; if you've been waiting for liquidity, the bid stack is unusually deep right now.